Critical Transitions and Early Warning Signals

1 Scheffer et al. 2012 β€” Anticipating Critical Transitions

Full Citation:: Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, et al. Anticipating critical transitions. Science. 2012;338(6105):344–348. (Scheffer et al. 2012) Key Contributions::

- Review of critical slowing down (CSD) as an early warning signal across ecology, climate, and physiology
- Formal criteria for detecting approaching tipping points: rising variance, increasing autocorrelation, flickering

Relevance:: Theoretical foundation for the CSD wearable monitoring proposal (Open Question CSD Detection Feasibility in ME/CFS Wearable Data). If ME/CFS disease transitions exhibit CSD signatures detectable in HRV, this would enable personalized early warning systems. Certainty Assessment::

- *Quality:* Very high (high-impact review in *Science*)
- *Replication:* CSD validated in multiple domains; application to ME/CFS untested
- *Certainty:* 0.90 (for CSD theory); 0.30 (for ME/CFS HRV application)

References

Scheffer, Marten, Stephen R. Carpenter, Timothy M. Lenton, et al. 2012. β€œAnticipating Critical Transitions.” Science 338 (6105): 344–48. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225244.